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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Cars registered for the first time by make and model, United Kingdom - updated to include 2020 Q4.

The data is difficult to pull details from on the basis of Censored in, Censored out, so it's open to a degree of interpretation, especially on what are actually new Defenders; but I gave it an honest go.


Click image to enlarge

Interesting to see MHEVs represent 24.59% of total registrations in 2020 Q4, previous quarter was under 2%.


Click image to enlarge


And in the context of other Landrover models:


Click image to enlarge


https://www.gov.uk/government/organisation...statistics


Last edited by Supacat on 14th May 2021 11:19am. Edited 1 time in total

Post #902997 14th May 2021 10:46am
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Simon Audi



Member Since: 19 Nov 2020
Location: Newport
Posts: 482

United Kingdom 

I guess because the 21MY was starting to sell and the phase out of 2020 vehicles.

All 21 cars are MHEV (I think) diesels are anyway..

Post #902999 14th May 2021 10:52am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Grenadier wrote:
Supacat wrote:
Since going on sale in the UK, new registrations for the Defender have averaged 303 per month, including all dealer demo stock, pre-registered cars, experience vehicles and management cars. That's a long way from selling well, even further away from JLR's forecasts.

Supacat, still waiting for a year on year extrapolation to see how many New Def sales are all new to JLR and how many are actually poached from (mainly) the Disco.

For Grenadier - not sure it answers the question directly but it gives a general picture of the relative strengths of model sales over an extended period of time:

Click image to enlarge



Click image to enlarge


In 2016 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 73,576.

In 2021 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 64,353.

A 12.54% decrease.

Post #903169 15th May 2021 10:01am
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Philip



Member Since: 09 Mar 2018
Location: England
Posts: 339

United Kingdom 

From my unscientific observations, a lot of people who had a Discovery 4 in town now have an XC90; of the two new Defenders which are very local to me, one appears to have replaced a Macan, one replaced a RR Sport. If they are really only registering 300 per month, I think I must have seen most of them…

Post #903175 15th May 2021 11:25am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Philip wrote:
If they are really only registering 300 per month


I've given you the link, there may be other sources of data available, you are more than welcome to inform yourself on the facts...

I crunch the numbers and present them here so that we can have adult conversations based on what I hope is valid, accurate data, or the nearest thing approximating it; rather than the type of comment along the line of "my dealer says they are selling loads", "I see 4 of them in my local supermarket car park" or worse "we've had 1.6 million online configurations completed, the Defender is really successful".

Post #903183 15th May 2021 12:43pm
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Philip



Member Since: 09 Mar 2018
Location: England
Posts: 339

United Kingdom 

Apologies - I’ll try to push a bizarrely bitter anti-JLR agenda in future posts.

Post #903189 15th May 2021 1:11pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Inconvenient truths... always difficult when your argument doesn't match up to any facts.

I've called out JLR's push to 1m vehicles, excessive warranty costs, poor customer service and design choices. It's not anti JLR. It's the exact opposite. If JLR is to be a successful business then it needed saving from the numpties driving it into the ground.

With Speth gone, look what's happened ~ new boss has cancelled 1m programme, senior managers are talking openly about warranty being too high and we can only hope further improvements are to follow.

You really don't support a business by flag waving whilst hiding or ignoring the facts.

Post #903193 15th May 2021 1:38pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

LincsLR wrote:


Cheshire110 wrote:
“increased costs more than 10 fold” - source? I don’t believe that for a second.


Supacat wrote:
There's the factory at Nitra £1.5 billion, recruitment & training of the new labour force (and housing and transport) ; £500 million of vehicle development; unknown millions on the marketing.

What do you think was spent on the old model on a 10 year cycle?

10 fold might actually be conservative...


Perhaps a little simplistic to look at costs in this very linear way; the car industry uses highly complex financial models to justify the decisions they make, and the initial sales numbers are just one part of that.

"Depreciation is charged on a straight-line basis over the estimated useful lives of the assets."
[quoted from JLR Annual Report 2019-20]

LincsLR wrote:
assuming future versions don’t demand significant retooling, these early costs will support the production of models for years to come.

JLR have again, for at least the 2nd time, announced that all legacy platforms are to go. In the case of the Defender the D7x into the MLA flex platform. So your assumption would be incorrect.

Click image to enlarge

LincsLR wrote:
Finally and most importantly, car sales have been and continue to be massively impacted by COVID and a global parts shortage.

There's always "headwinds" in business, and the motor industry can be particularly cyclical. There's also companies that have product that is wanted and so have seen little effect during the pandemic. In terms of massive impact to JLR the loss in sales, year on year, have actually been LOWER since Covid than in the years prior...

FY 18/19 down 9.33%
FY 19/20 down 7.73%
FY 20/21 down 7.06%

LincsLR wrote:
To be fair to the model, we need a more ‘normal’ year to see the ‘real’ numbers.

When has there ever been a "normal" year - the Defender has had the kitchen sink thrown at it in terms of marketing, there was supposed to be huge pent up demand. It simply has not taken the orders anticipated and only come 4th in the LR model sales table.

In terms of recent new/refreshed model launches it's sold less in the first 12 months than everything bar the Discovery:

RRS relaunch April 2013 - 50,953
Velar launched June 2017 - 56,287
Discovery relaunched Dec 2018 - 35,641
Evoque relaunched Feb 2019 - 83,902
Discovery Sport refresh August 2019 - 65,962
Defender launched March 2020 - 39,663

Post #903221 15th May 2021 4:08pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Some global industry perspective ~ winners and loosers:



Click image to enlarge

Post #903607 17th May 2021 6:23pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green


Click image to enlarge


Interesting to see the push each quarter end to get vehicles retailed. The last quarter showing a marked decline, month on month, for retail sales in January and February then a big push for March.

If JLR could smooth delivery to March output then order book represents only a 12 week wait time.

Post #904035 20th May 2021 9:18am
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DSL



Member Since: 20 Aug 2007
Location: Wandering the wasteland.
Posts: 828

United Kingdom 

I’ve got a couple of hours to kill in Inverness today, service work on SWMBO’s car at the Honda dealer. The LR dealer is next door so will either have a mooch, assuming I can get in one, or resist the lure. Whistle Whistle

Post #904216 21st May 2021 8:15am
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LincsLR



Member Since: 08 Mar 2021
Location: Lincolnshire
Posts: 27

United Kingdom 

Supacat wrote:
LincsLR wrote:


Cheshire110 wrote:
“increased costs more than 10 fold” - source? I don’t believe that for a second.


Supacat wrote:
There's the factory at Nitra £1.5 billion, recruitment & training of the new labour force (and housing and transport) ; £500 million of vehicle development; unknown millions on the marketing.

What do you think was spent on the old model on a 10 year cycle?

10 fold might actually be conservative...


Perhaps a little simplistic to look at costs in this very linear way; the car industry uses highly complex financial models to justify the decisions they make, and the initial sales numbers are just one part of that.

"Depreciation is charged on a straight-line basis over the estimated useful lives of the assets."
[quoted from JLR Annual Report 2019-20]

LincsLR wrote:
assuming future versions don’t demand significant retooling, these early costs will support the production of models for years to come.

JLR have again, for at least the 2nd time, announced that all legacy platforms are to go. In the case of the Defender the D7x into the MLA flex platform. So your assumption would be incorrect.

Click image to enlarge

LincsLR wrote:
Finally and most importantly, car sales have been and continue to be massively impacted by COVID and a global parts shortage.

There's always "headwinds" in business, and the motor industry can be particularly cyclical. There's also companies that have product that is wanted and so have seen little effect during the pandemic. In terms of massive impact to JLR the loss in sales, year on year, have actually been LOWER since Covid than in the years prior...

FY 18/19 down 9.33%
FY 19/20 down 7.73%
FY 20/21 down 7.06%

LincsLR wrote:
To be fair to the model, we need a more ‘normal’ year to see the ‘real’ numbers.

When has there ever been a "normal" year - the Defender has had the kitchen sink thrown at it in terms of marketing, there was supposed to be huge pent up demand. It simply has not taken the orders anticipated and only come 4th in the LR model sales table.

In terms of recent new/refreshed model launches it's sold less in the first 12 months than everything bar the Discovery:

RRS relaunch April 2013 - 50,953
Velar launched June 2017 - 56,287
Discovery relaunched Dec 2018 - 35,641
Evoque relaunched Feb 2019 - 83,902
Discovery Sport refresh August 2019 - 65,962
Defender launched March 2020 - 39,663


Wow, took you a while to come back with a challenge. Guess I made you work for this! Do you ever get bored of being such an unpleasant know it all?

It’s easy to take a single sentence and try and find another single statement elsewhere that allows you to dismiss any opinion other than your own. Not much thought (or intelligence) required to do that. You seem so intent on dismissing any reasoned argument with your myopic view of the world that no matter what anyone says, you can’t engage effectively. Cool

To be clear, depreciation is just a tiny element of my explanation. Try looking at the rest. Or, if you’re only interested in point scoring, then don’t, of course. I guess it depends on the fragility of your ego Thumbs Up

As a car industry expert (or armchair google fanatic), you will know that a new platform does not by definition mean complete retooling. It very much depends on how the factory was developed. Knowing they were going to replace a platform (and that is not new news, in case you didn’t know?) allows for numerous future cost mitigating factors to be included. So no, I don’t think my assumption is invalid. Neither do I think your argument is totally invalid. See, a little balance there for you. You should try having a little balance sometime, if you’re able to Very Happy

Supacat, you present yourself as a font of all knowledge. In reality I assume you use google to collect, collate and combine data (poorly) to “empower” yourself with some information (often taken out of context), and then push your agenda with a horrible attitude that demeans people on this forum. Not all the time though. Sometimes you can be really helpful and pleasant. I agree with you on the faults of JLR and the need to call these out. But surely there is, as mentioned just above, a balance? Perhaps you should consider adjusting your medication so that you don’t present as quite such a poisonous, bile filled troll at times. And if you don’t recognise my description, just read up through this thread, or indeed any of the other many thousands of comments you’ve left on here. Some brilliant. Some incredibly rude. Many just plain ignorant.

I can’t wait for your reply, telling me how stupid I am. But I won’t respond to it, so perhaps it is best you move on to try and bully someone else. Or of course, you could just stop. Stop being rude. Stop being a bully. Stop presenting your own arguments as fact. Stop creating poorly combined data as pseudo fact.

Have fun in your personal echo chamber.

Best wishes... Ner Ner

Post #904417 22nd May 2021 11:48am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 9937

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green


Click image to enlarge

Car Industry Analysis (@lovecarindustry) Tweeted:

The Defender was the 2nd top selling LR in Europe in April. It was able to register 2,149 units, outselling all of its brothers, except for the Evoque, the cheapest in the lineup. Unfortunately, the success of this awesome off-road means lower sales of other models like Discovery
https://t.co/Rs9IovCCQy https://twitter.com/lovecarindustry/status...79235?s=20

Post #906346 3rd Jun 2021 6:40pm
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Grenadier



Member Since: 23 Jul 2014
Location: The foot of Mont Blanc...
Posts: 5246

France 2011 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 DCPU Corris Grey

If those stats are accurate, it's interesting to see that the Disco has had a relatively low drop, compared with RRS and Velar, if we're thinking those three winters are cross decking to Defender. Of course it could be argued that they jumped ship to Defender last year, and in weighty enough numbers, that there are almost no waverers left and only hard core Disco buyers remain so the percentage are far lower. Velar and RRS buyers might have taken more convincing but after a year they can see the new Def is just another SUV that can come with flashy interiors, be ordered pre pimped and entirely blacked out, lowered, etc with 22" wheels and eventually a V8. Whistle Monsieur Le Grenadier

I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list.....

2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey

Post #906885 8th Jun 2021 7:35am
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markb110



Member Since: 22 May 2010
Location: Guildford
Posts: 1362

England 2002 Defender 90 Td5 HT Epsom Green

Hypothetically speaking in terms of future sales, would people prefer a stretched 110 (aka the 130 / 110 with more boot space), or a stretched 90 called the 100 to give decent boot space for the 5 seaters and a bit more space for the Hard Top.


I kinda fancy the latter, though I would rather have the axles spaced out to keep the departure angles.

Post #906892 8th Jun 2021 8:39am
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