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Huttopia



Member Since: 23 Feb 2016
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 1965

United Kingdom 
NZ has had a good war. They shut the borders very early and the comms were clear and enforcement real. A friend who lived in HK managed to get one of the last flights in to NZ (his wife is a kiwi) and has now bought a house and settled there. They are near Christchurch and life is pretty much back to normal. Fair play.
Post #877457 10th Jan 2021 2:13pm
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rockster57



Member Since: 15 Nov 2014
Location: West Yorkshire
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Supacat, Fair point. I too am sceptical.
Post #877502 10th Jan 2021 4:17pm
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LandRoverAnorak



Member Since: 17 Jul 2011
Location: Surrey
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Supacat wrote:
Isolated island - by what measure? In today's world very few places are isolated.

Tiny economy - GDP per capita is approx the same as UK.

Population spread over large areas - "While NZ has a lower population than many other countries it is important to note that the vast majority of New Zealand's population live in cities or towns that are more comparable in density to many other countries."

<snip>

For every 10 persons in UK we get 5.4 international visitors whilst New Zealand gets nearly 50% more at 7.5.

Far lower levels of international trade - by value per head UK is higher but not hugely.

and none by land - how does that differ from the UK, both being islands?

Per capita comparisons are not really relevant in this instance. The risk (of infection, transmission, whatever) from outside increases by the volume of people and goods moving rather than the rate relevant to population. As for both the UK and NZ being islands, I'd have thought the differences were obvious when one is an hour from mainland Europe, linked by both trains and boats that see thousands of movements each day and the other is in the south Pacific, hundreds of miles from it's nearest significant neighbour thereby subject to a significant natural barrier to ease of movement. Darren

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Post #877555 10th Jan 2021 6:46pm
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Grenadier



Member Since: 23 Jul 2014
Location: The foot of Mont Blanc...
Posts: 5765

France 2011 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 DCPU Corris Grey
Supacat wrote:
Grenadier wrote:
New Zealand (isolated island, tiny economy, population spread over large areas, little international movement of people to/through their borders, far lower levels of international trade, and none by land etc), the two world-leading countries. We have to compare apples with apples.


Isolated island - by what measure? In today's world very few places are isolated. By any reasonable measure. I'm a Kiwi, it's the back end of beyond and visitor numbers, frequency of travel and access are entirely different to that of the UK and the open borders with Europe.

Tiny economy - GDP per capita is approx the same as UK. I didn't say GDP I said economy. We're the 6th largest, NZ 50th. Elon Musk is worth almost as much as NZ's annual GDP. UK international tourism accounts for 10% of our economy, NZ 5%. UK has 4m jobs tied to the tourist sector. 20% of NZ GDP is from ovsereas exports to China and a handful of other countries and is mainly farming and mining, trade which could continue. It is therefore a much easier decision the shut down the world's 50th global economy than the 6th. It's exponential, not just per capita. I say this to emphasise that whilst what Ardern has done is brilliant, the size of the economy (and the factors I mention below) make it easier. Not easy, easier. What's more, NZ have not been in the process of managing a divorce from their largest trading partner at the same time which will only amplify full scale lockdowns.

Population spread over large areas - "While NZ has a lower population than many other countries it is important to note that the vast majority of New Zealand's population live in cities or towns that are more comparable in density to many other countries." Balls. Yes they have a handful of big cities (Auckland approx 1.5m, ChCh approx 400k) but density is not even comparable. Average density UK to NZ is 450/km2 vs 18/km2, but comparing the two busiest cities as an example are London 6000/km2 vs Auckland 500/km2. 10 times the density, but also 5 times the size. Just ONE city. How can they even be compared? Further only 10% of the UK population is rural, so density for the remaining 45m people, on an island half the size of NZ, is as high as their biggest city.


Click image to enlarge


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-zealand...heazlewood

Little international movement of people to/through their borders - "Many people are saying that NZ is isolated and does not have many international visitors. While NZ has a comparatively small population and comparatively small tourist numbers in terms of total visitors, nevertheless as a percentage of the population the visitor numbers are quite high"

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-zealand...heazlewood

For every 10 persons in UK we get 5.4 international visitors whilst New Zealand gets nearly 50% more at 7.5.

My point was not discussing the relative sizes of our tourist economies, but that it is much easier to control/shut down 3m visitors than 45m visitors. FFS more people visit the Natural History Museum than NZ. What's more, nobody in the world 'transits' through NZ to other destinations whereas the UK, mainly Heathrow, remains one of the world's top-5 hubs. People who come through the UK without ever stopping but can still act as a vector. Indeed London's airports combined make London the busiest airport hub city inthe world with 180m passing through. Auckland a staggering 20m. Further, bar East Coast Oz, maybe 20m people, NZ has no other countries within 2hrs flight that offers people the opportunity for business trips, day trips, weekend breaks. The UK has 40 with almost 3/4 of a BILLION people.

Far lower levels of international trade - by value per head UK is higher but not hugely. Not value, quantity. Movement of people who are transporting the stuff = movement of the virus.

and none by land - how does that differ from the UK, both being islands?
. The channel tunnel is now a land bridge taking up to 5000 trucks and 60,000 people each day. That's more than pass through Auckland airport.

So, do you think you can fairly compare NZ with UK or not? My assertion was that you can't, and shouldn't, and we should just focus on getting the job done. It wasn't a comparison between each country by capita. It was how movement of people and trade are exponentially different and constant comparisons with what each country has done is pointless. Monsieur Le Grenadier

I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list.....

2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey
Post #877575 10th Jan 2021 7:38pm
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Pickles



Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3752

Australia 2013 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 CSW Keswick Green
Many words of relevance here.
The only thing I can say of any certainty that WILL help, is self isolation.
I can't say what's going on in the UK, or how it can be fixed, because if it could, better minds than mine would've fixed it by now.
But until the Vaccine happens, a lockdown will help, it definitely will, IF people abide by the rules, keep your distance, wear a mask, don't "mix" with others, if you don't have to go out, don't go out, get your groceries etc delivered instead of going shopping.
All simple fiddly little stuff, but really, if you can keep your distance, keep to yourself, wear a mask if outside your home, use hand sanitizer, wash your hands regularly, don't touch your face with unsanitized hands, etc, all of these small things combine to form a good defense.
Pickles.
Post #877626 10th Jan 2021 10:50pm
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bob neville



Member Since: 30 Apr 2009
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Spain 2001 Defender 90 Td5 SW Epsom Green
Valid points Pickles but, unfortunately, reality in the UK is slightly different.

Getting groceries delivered is a total joke. Myself and a lot of my friends have tried getting delivery slots for over a week to no avail. We have no choice but to go out otherwise we will starve to death.

All you say about masks, social distancing etc is all true except nobody knows why the so called UK mutation is spreading so easily. Until they know why this variant spreads so easily, London was in a lockdown and it still spread easily, nothing we do is safe.

Bob 2015 Jaguar XE240 R Sport - goes like ....... !!
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Post #877637 11th Jan 2021 12:34am
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Slideywindows



Member Since: 09 Sep 2016
Location: North Essex
Posts: 1283

England 
I have only two observations to make:

1. If the road outside my house is anything to go by, there are still far too many people out and about, ignoring the restrictions that are in place - and that is clearly Boris Johnson's fault.

2. Everybody else in the country could have handled the pandemic much better than the Government.


And then a question:

Have I been watching the BBC too much.....? Banging Head
Post #877760 11th Jan 2021 6:09pm
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Huttopia



Member Since: 23 Feb 2016
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 1965

United Kingdom 
It is difficult for the public to take the messages from ministers and scientists seriously after 12 months of poor comms, spin, bluster and BS. As a case in point, almost 12 months in, the utter shambles around the return to school last week shows this is a government that has learnt nothing. Inevitably the blame is then laid at the door of the public for failing to adhere to the guidelines. Rinse and repeat.....
Post #877802 11th Jan 2021 8:33pm
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Zed



Member Since: 07 Oct 2017
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No doubt it's also our fault there were PPE shortages and the 'world beating' £22 billion Test & Trace system isn't fit for purpose. WARNING.
This post may contain sarcasm.
Post #877806 11th Jan 2021 8:50pm
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Huttopia



Member Since: 23 Feb 2016
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 1965

United Kingdom 
The test and trace system has been lost. No one in govt is mentioning it and Dido Harding has vanished off the face of the earth.
Post #877809 11th Jan 2021 8:55pm
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Pickles



Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3752

Australia 2013 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 CSW Keswick Green
Huttopia. That does not sound very good.
"Test & Trace" is the method by which Aussie eventually got on top of things, with the other precautions I've mentioned.
Pickles.
Post #877870 12th Jan 2021 1:47am
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Doc P



Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Firenze Red
Our Trust is now caring for 60% more COVID patients than the peak in April. The ITUs are running at 150-200% normal occupancy.

Scary thing is that this feels almost ‘normal’ now. What’s even scarier though is we’re not seeing any survivors from the cohort we’re putting on ventilators, although it is still early days with this wave.

Putting it into perspective is the situation in London where they’re running at 300% occupancy in some Units . They are transferring patients far and wide to try and make space - we’ve received some in the Midlands but I’ve heard of examples where they’ve been moved to the north east! Unheard of in my career.

Happy days! Stay safe folks and get vaccinated.
Post #879824 20th Jan 2021 10:52pm
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markb110



Member Since: 22 May 2010
Location: Guildford
Posts: 2520

England 2002 Defender 90 Td5 HT Epsom Green
I thought that i would show this.

I know that it is not the UK or even Europe and isn't even the whole of America but Caitlin does speak frankly about what she is seeing in LA. She owns a funeral home.

I have watched her channel for a while now, the practical advise when speaking to parents was invaluable for me at the time and the historical events she covers is really well done and interesting.

I have not seen this in our news, and perhaps it should, even if it is a wake up call.

Post #881584 28th Jan 2021 6:07pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

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Huttopia wrote:
The test and trace system has been lost. No one in govt is mentioning it and Dido Harding has vanished off the face of the earth.


I'd have more faith in us saving the money we are filling her pockets with and splashing out on a few of these:


Click image to enlarge


COVID-19: Scientists have trained sniffer dogs to detect coronavirus with 94% accuracy

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-scient...y-12207865

Of course they may be subject to an EU export ban...
Post #883066 4th Feb 2021 8:56am
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Pickles



Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3752

Australia 2013 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 CSW Keswick Green
Hello from Aussie.
Our vaccinations are to commence this week, with the elderly, health care workers etc, first on the list, then other groups, ages etc to follow. It's not quite clear which vaccine each of us will get, I don't think we have a choice, but whatever, I'll be lining up when my turn comes.
Just wondering how vaccinations are progressing with you guys in the UK?
Pickles.
Post #887039 21st Feb 2021 10:37pm
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