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Ianh



Member Since: 17 Sep 2018
Location: Essex
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United Kingdom 

Orchard wrote:
Supacat - I don't know how to do this clever quote thing so;
-


You do it by hitting the quote button at the bottom right of the post window you want to quote, alongside the profile , pm and gallery buttons

Post #913502 21st Jul 2021 10:05pm
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What puddle?



Member Since: 25 Oct 2013
Location: Reading
Posts: 876

United Kingdom 

...except when the button says 'Reply' Very Happy UK population is growing at 1,200 a day (8,400 people a week). Think about it...because no one is.

Post #913503 21st Jul 2021 10:08pm
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22900013A



Member Since: 23 Dec 2010
Location: Oxfordshire
Posts: 2924

United Kingdom 2011 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 USW Keswick Green

You can't quote the last post in a thread. 2011 110 USW
1973 Series III 1-Ton
1972 Series III 1-Ton Cherrypicker
1969 IIA 1-Ton
1966 IIA 88"

Post #913517 22nd Jul 2021 5:46am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 10218

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

What puddle? wrote:
With annual sales revenue down...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/386886...l-revenue/
And profits down...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/387191...efore-tax/


I think you have to register to view the graphs?

Post #913519 22nd Jul 2021 6:05am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 10218

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Orchard wrote:

- Discovery vs Defender. You can't necessarily conflate low sales of Discovery to Defender selling more. Sure there will be some cross shopping, and there will be many reasons behind buyer choices that are only understood by asking real customers.


I think many people see the link...

Another slant on whether new Defender is cannibalising D5 sales.

Car Industry Analysis (@lovecarindustry) Tweeted:

There’s speculation that the new #LandRoverDefender is cannibalizing the #LandRoverDiscovery. Although the data supports this, the current gen Discovery has been posting sales drops way before the introduction of the new Defender. Arrival of Defender accelerated drop of Discovery

https://t.co/etpw13Onw5 https://twitter.com/lovecarindustry/status...29216?s=20


Click image to enlarge

Post #913544 22nd Jul 2021 9:54am
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Orchard



Member Since: 07 May 2015
Location: Usually walking the dog
Posts: 243

Nope, you can't draw that conclusion. Just because two things appear to be linked doesn't mean they are. I eat Pizza on Fridays and my daughter goes out and drinks wine on Friday, so I could draw a chart showing there is a trend that links them, but of course they are not - you have to show actual causation, not just 'everyone thinks' ! 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW

Post #913551 22nd Jul 2021 10:35am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
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United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

I'm not sure your pizza example serves the argument well; but I would agree that without asking every single person who buys a new Defender whether they would have bought a D5 if the Defender did not exist, it will never be known.

So it's a question of looking at what information exists, and taking a view from there. Many do, including JLR execs, who have commented on the new Defender canibalising D5 sales albeit hopefully at a much higher overall volume of sales and only to an "acceptable" levels.

You only have to look at the anecdotal evidence in threads on here to know it is a real thing.

It is very much a side issue to "Defender is a success" though. That's still whether they can make the business case of 100k sales per annum.

Post #913571 22nd Jul 2021 1:05pm
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What puddle?



Member Since: 25 Oct 2013
Location: Reading
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Yes, it's called correlation. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

In much the same way that there isn't a direct causal link between increased CO2 emissions and climate temperature. It may look like they're linked...



...but the underlying conditions are what matter. In the case of climate, CO2 may have a link, but there is what's termed 'climate sensitivity' which gets in the way of that link. Short term variability overrides any visual link, and history points to no link at all.



So what first may appear to be gospel, ain't necessarily so. UK population is growing at 1,200 a day (8,400 people a week). Think about it...because no one is.

Post #913574 22nd Jul 2021 1:14pm
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What puddle?



Member Since: 25 Oct 2013
Location: Reading
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Having said that...

There is no way that Disco and Defender sales aren't linked! I mean, it's obvious, innit? UK population is growing at 1,200 a day (8,400 people a week). Think about it...because no one is.

Post #913575 22nd Jul 2021 1:15pm
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AMBxx



Member Since: 24 Jul 2016
Location: York
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United Kingdom 2015 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Orkney Grey

Looking at that chart, the only possible causality is that the new Discovery destroyed Discovery sales all on its own. Didn't need any help from the Defender!

Post #913577 22nd Jul 2021 1:31pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
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United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

Don't forget that only shows European registrations...there's the full global position which looks like this:


Click image to enlarge


In 2016 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 73,576.

In 2021 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 64,353.

A 12.54% decrease ~ the band plays whilst JLR senior management shuffle the deck chairs...

Post #913583 22nd Jul 2021 2:23pm
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Orchard



Member Since: 07 May 2015
Location: Usually walking the dog
Posts: 243

What puddle? wrote:
Having said that...

There is no way that Disco and Defender sales aren't linked! I mean, it's obvious, innit?


I suppose it must be, my mate said so Rolling with laughter

Some sales cannibalisation of one model will always be factored in when a new model is planned, for example if the new model (A) is forecast to be 80,000 units, and an existing one (B) is forecast to drop from 50,000 to 40,000, you still have a net sales gain of 70,000, and all is good as long as (B) is still acceptably profitable. 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW

Post #913585 22nd Jul 2021 2:34pm
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Orchard



Member Since: 07 May 2015
Location: Usually walking the dog
Posts: 243

Supacat wrote:


In 2016 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 73,576.

In 2021 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 64,353.

A 12.54% decrease ~ the band plays whilst JLR senior management shuffle the deck chairs...


Not sure where you get your 2021 figures from, JLR's year to end of June shows:
Defender 34,157
Discovery 9,859 (which I agree is awful)
Total 44,000, so double it for the year, which is really not quite right but gives 88,000 or a 20% increase - band plays and ship re-floats, deckchairs put away for another year Bow down

BTW I think 100,000 is referring to 'isn't it going well we might exceed our forecasts given the reception and positive feedback from dealers, media and customers Very Happy' that's obviously quite different now to a planning forecast 5 or 6 years ago, and great news if it does! 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW

Post #913587 22nd Jul 2021 2:47pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 10218

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

2021 is financial year.

You can't take a year to date figure and double it.. I think that’s counting chickens.

100,000 refers to the original business case. If they thought there was only 50,000 sales the talk was of postponing or even cancelling the project. Nitra has a capacity of 150,000, paint shop 300,000 per annum. To suggest targets were much lower is nonsense.

Defender is selling decent numbers, measured against other nameplates, but the metrics for success were that it was to perform at the level of another Evoque or Discovery Sport and the plain fact is, to date, it's not doing that.


Click image to enlarge

Post #913588 22nd Jul 2021 2:53pm
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Orchard



Member Since: 07 May 2015
Location: Usually walking the dog
Posts: 243

If you take the first FY of sales of a new model, whilst its still ramping up globally, its no indication of business case success or otherwise.

100,000pa original business case Rolling with laughter we'll have to agree to differ on that one Cool

I was just trying to be positive about a new Land Rover model that is doing ok, even having launched in the middle of a pandemic. I know many on here don't want it to succeed for all sorts of reasons, but it's great for Land Rover, for R+D jobs and UK PLC.

That's me done on this thread. Oh and yes, I do have a Carp. 90 D250 HSE on order Thumbs Up can't wait to see how it compares with the old Bowler 90 Bow down 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW

Post #913595 22nd Jul 2021 3:46pm
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