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| Bluest Member Since: 23 Apr 2016 Location: Lancashire Posts: 3996   
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There’s is another dimension to this as well. The factory has capacity for way more vehicles than Ineos will ever build themselves. It’s therefore seems to me that there’ll be looking rent capacity to other manufacturers. This might prove quite lucrative itself, in these uncertain times when manufacturers might not want invest capital in new plants, unsure of how the uptake of EVs might play out. JLR already contract out production of the iPace. 2007 110 TDCi Station Wagon XS
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15th May 2021 8:52am |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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I read Gordon Murray is going to be looking for space to build his new SUV EV, but I don't know if his istream manufacturing process requires such a plant. Now left.
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15th May 2021 9:09am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018 
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Do you mean this info?
From here: https://www.defender2.net/forum/topic73382-150.html Although I'm scratching my head at the old Defender numbers in the run out years, they look very low. I can crunch official JLR retail sales data and see what it looks like on a global basis... I added some more data over here, rather than take this thread further off topic: https://www.defender2.net/forum/post903169.html#903169 |
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15th May 2021 9:12am |
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| Philip Member Since: 09 Mar 2018 Location: England Posts: 510
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Ratcliffe surely can’t have gone into this expecting profits - the market for a full-price Grenadire station wagon must be minuscule, any commercial variant is going to be double the cost of the Japanese pickup that does exactly the same job (but likely drives better). That leaves the odd Walt/prepper with £50k+ to spend (can’t see the finance deals being great), the various NGOs, emergency services etc (who’ll likely get them for nothing for the PR) and Ineos themselves.
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15th May 2021 11:39am |
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| Muddybigdog Member Since: 11 Apr 2014 Location: Suffolk Posts: 991 
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Most of the ROI is in the Financing, many car manufacturers make most their money on this element. Jumped ship to reliability - Mitsubishi L200
Puma 90 XS - Sold D3 - 2.7 S x2 (both Sold) Freelander 2 HSE - Sold Freelander 1 - Sold Disco 2 - Sold |
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15th May 2021 11:52am |
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| boxoftricks Member Since: 06 Feb 2019 Location: Home Counties Posts: 745 
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Obviously, Mr Ratcliffe has done the numbers, but so did Dyson (initially). I don't know what the profit is on a £50,000 car, but let's say it's £5,000. That's £125 million a year. That's quite some years (a decade?) before you get your investment back. So that's just to break even on your investment. Only then might you start to see a real profit. As I said before, I think there's going to be some competition for the sector he's aiming for, with vehicles that are much less than £50,000
EDIT: Just did a little reading, and it's very eye opening. Toyota make just £3,750 on each car (on average) and BMW make £2,272. VW make just £298!!! The actual profit margin for the average car company as a whole appears to come out at just 7.5%.[/quote] Peugeot only makes £600 per car, the money is made on servicing and parts. Any ideas on the route to market they are taking as a dealer and servicing network takes a lot of investment. If your nearest dealer is 200 miles away would you buy one? |
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15th May 2021 1:32pm |
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| Bluest Member Since: 23 Apr 2016 Location: Lancashire Posts: 3996
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Rather than servicing and parts, I believe many make much their money from finance/lease/PCP. They are effectively a finance house that also sells vehicles. 2007 110 TDCi Station Wagon XS
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15th May 2021 1:39pm |
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| boxoftricks Member Since: 06 Feb 2019 Location: Home Counties Posts: 745
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So the Defender is taking Discovery sales? They don't seem to be increasing market share. Also got to be influenced by the fact the latest Discovery is a design disaster. |
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15th May 2021 1:40pm |
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| Philip Member Since: 09 Mar 2018 Location: England Posts: 510
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The Discovery 5’s lack of success is an interesting one, I’m not sure it’s entirely about looks.
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15th May 2021 1:44pm |
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| markb110 Member Since: 22 May 2010 Location: Guildford Posts: 2520  
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So with the numbers above, does that take in account all those cars built without a buyer that in turn is parked up in an old airfield or at the docks going nowhere.
Ie the bean counters telling manufacturing to build 20 to justify the cost of the one going to the showroom with Mr and Mrs Smith’s name on it. Which when you think about the global chip shortage, why don’t they just strip the parts from what they have already built…. |
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15th May 2021 1:47pm |
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| Grenadier Member Since: 23 Jul 2014 Location: The foot of Mont Blanc... Posts: 5765  
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I think chance of success also boils down to 'intangibles', one of which is 'follow my leader'. Compare Dyson with Musk. At the outset both with similar goals, yet Musk is the outspoken Silicon Valley entrepreneur/nutcase with mammoth Twitter following, Dyson is a quiet, considered grey haired Englishman with a very low media profile. Who was the 'next generation' of electric cars going to appeal to, mainly middle-to-high income, young-to-middle aged urbanites and so of those two industry behemoths, who's vision were they most likely to follow? The geek or the cool (whether you think he's cool or not is entirely subjective) dude? Most industry and finance experts say the Market Cap for Tesla is based almost entirely on the almost cult like hype that surrounds Musk and his fans rather than anything Tesla actually brings to the automotive market.
Ratcliffe has many, many naysayers, but I think there's part of him that truly believes in British icons and recreating a rugged vehicle for the wilds of planet earth. He's skied to the North and South Poles, ridden motorbikes across continents, overlanded original Defenders etc. He's a man that walks his talk. So I think this is more than just a pet project for him and I believe he will have enough of a following, albeit small, to help bolster those small unit numbers he needs to sell, because they will believe in what he's trying to do. Just look at the reception the monthly updates receive. And the way he's challenged LR, embarrassed them really, by trying to buy the machinery, then fighting them in court and winning, then making them a laughing stock because of their assertions that a new version of the classic Def couldn't be made because of EU legislation. He's not stopped, Not backed down. He's committed and a large part of that can be because he's a gambler, a large part because he wants to show up JLR, but a large part could be because he genuinely wants to make this work and believes it will. An immediate indication in this regard was approaching Steyr to be the main Engineers rather than poaching from JLR. Also, committing to the Merc plant (as much as it rankled with Brits) because it's technically advanced and oven-ready, to use a Brexit analogy. I think this will succeed. Monsieur Le Grenadier I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list..... 2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey |
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15th May 2021 1:59pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Initial decisions for both Dyson and Ineos were probably anything but. Look at Dyson's history of being shown the door with his vehicle filters and JLR refusing to sell the Defender tooling. If both companies were more corporate and not essentially the business projections of the two individuals, do you think either would have got into cars?
From what I've read, it was more about the next stages of investment - many billions of pounds - that put Dyson off, knowing he was going to have to compete with the likes of VW who had then announced the push to electric with a budget of £50 billion. I'm not sure how much of Dyson's loss is real. Certainly, there will be tax credits and trade offs. Some of the work on batteries may well benefit his other businesses, and there's the patents applied for and held, which may yield something in the future.
That's assuming an investment of £1.25 billion? Where did that figure come from? Next accounts made up to 31 December 2020 are due by 30 September 2021, so there's more going to be more cost to add, but also an element (or technically more so) of revenue from contract work at the Hambach plant; however, reported cumulative losses stand at under €200 million - €137,124,000 (2019) & €50,996,000 (2018).  Click image to enlarge What he's paid for the Hambach plant could be anything from £1 to £1 billion. I'd guess it would be at the lower end of that scale. |
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15th May 2021 2:38pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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I'd say that as it's labelled as registrations, then it's going to follow on from retail sales figures. There's certainly a higher figure of wholesale units - vehicle sales made to retailers or other external customers. Then there's any holding stock of JLR's - the last Accounts reported a target Inventory holding of £3 billion or lower. The last reported gap between retail sales and wholesale units was 7,850 vehicles or just over 17% of all retail sales. So that's vehicles bought by dealers but not sold on yet. |
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15th May 2021 3:00pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Some figures for JLR from last Annual Accounts:. "Inventories of finished goods include £466 million (2019: £484 million, 2018: £436 million) relating to vehicles sold to rental car companies, fleet customers and others with guaranteed repurchase arrangements." "Some contracts with customers include an option or obligation for the Group to repurchase the product sold (including repurchasing a product originally sold as part of an amended product). Such instances are common in the Group’s arrangements with third-party fleet customers or in contract manufacturing arrangements that the Group is party to, for example. The Group does not recognise revenue on the original sale, as in such cases it is considered to retain ultimate control of that product. The related inventory therefore continues to be recognised on the Group’s consolidated balance sheet and the consideration received from the customer is treated as a liability." |
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15th May 2021 3:07pm |
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