 | Home > Off Topic > September New Car Sales could be biggest ever |
 
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018   
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"September could be the biggest new car sales month on record – but huge supply issues are strangling the market, say car dealers.
With factories closed across the world during lockdown, manufacturers are struggling to satisfy buyer demand resulting in long waits for new cars. Car dealers have warned that they are struggling to fulfil sales demand and are being forced to make customers wait for up to nine months for some new cars as the crucial 70-plate arrives on Tuesday, September 1. Daksh Gupta, chief executive of Marshall Motor Group, said he predicts the new car market could be up by as much as 25 per cent in September – but without the supply issues currently affecting the market, this could have been up by as much as 40 per cent year on year. ‘We are looking at what could be the biggest September plate change on record, but there are huge supply issues out there,’ said Gupta. ‘Let’s look at the facts, factories have been shut and huge numbers of buyers have not been able to purchase in the last week of March, April and then May. ‘Even conservatively, this equates to around 400,000 buyers who have not been able to buy and they’re looking to do so now. ‘However, supply issues mean some of these customers cannot get the cars they want.’ Gupta said these buyers are instead turning to the nearly new market, but supply in the used car market is also causing problems. Gupta said the SMMT’s revised forecast downwards to 1.6m new car registrations in 2020 was a surprise and points to the back half of the year being down around 12 per cent overall. ‘This leads me to think manufacturers are telling the SMMT that they are predicting supply issues of new cars,’ said Gupta. ‘And we’re already seeing that. I think customers will have to get used to long waiting lists once again.’ Most car manufacturers Car Dealer contacted would not openly admit to having supply issues. However, one senior manufacturer source said vehicles in the pipeline were being exhausted and factories are struggling to play catch-up. Steve Fowler, editor-in-chief of Auto Express said: ‘We’ve heard from a number of OEMs that stock is going to be an issue in the next few months, as factories and suppliers play catch-up after shutdowns. ‘It was always going to be an issue, but there are plenty of UK importers battling with head offices for right-hand drive production. ‘It might mean longer than usual waiting times if buyers aren’t happy to buy what is in stock – which is going fast!’ Car Dealer has spoken to several dealer group bosses who have reported issues with supply across the board. There is a plus side to all this, said Gupta, as it is driving up residual values as new car customers turn to used models instead. But he added that it is frustrating not being able to satisfy new car demand. He said: ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if this September is the best ever, but it could be even better if we could get hold of the cars.’ ‘I can see this being a problem until well into 2021,’ added Gupta. ‘It’s a problem for all manufacturers, there’s no particular one affected.’ Jim Holder, editorial director of Haymarket Automotive, publishers of Autocar and What Car?, says its research suggests customers are only prepared to wait a maximum of a month for a new car. He said: ‘This now appears to be becoming a reality as these buyers are also telling us they are extending their shortlists – between models, brands or into nearly new in stock cars – so that they can buy quickly.’ ‘The reality is that buyers have never had so much time to research and are taking control of the situation, and after so many hard months, many manufacturers and retailers are losing out on sales either through a shortage of stock or having the wrong stock.’ https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/se...ues/201326 I wonder where JLR will come out on this? |
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28th Aug 2020 10:30am |
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| 90 Dreamer Member Since: 13 Jul 2019 Location: Oop North Posts: 2055 
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best ever only because all of the last 5-6months has been the worst............
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28th Aug 2020 1:22pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Isn't that part of the point being made? It's a recovery...
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28th Aug 2020 4:33pm |
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| Projectblue Member Since: 22 Nov 2011 Location: Devon Posts: 1096 
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So lets do the maths.....
New car sales for April, May, June & July = 0 Ignoring traditional spike towards August for 1st Sept spike thats still down by 1/3rd. However, sales are up by a record 25%. Or one quarter. Yay. Hardly seems like much of a recovery  New project and it's green: www.projectoverland.info |
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28th Aug 2020 8:44pm |
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| 90 Dreamer Member Since: 13 Jul 2019 Location: Oop North Posts: 2055
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All of this 'recovery' is spun so much the worlds turning faster than 6months ago........
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28th Aug 2020 8:47pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Well if you are a pessimist... |
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28th Aug 2020 9:45pm |
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| RDR Member Since: 27 Apr 2018 Location: Derbyshire Posts: 572
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I hope it does bounce bank, have a friend working in the car finance industry the amount of cars being handed back due to people losing income or companies folding is concerning which I guess could continue for some time and possibly get worse. 110 MY23.5 X Dynamic HSE
RR MY23 HSE PHEV D5 MY19 HSE - Now Sold D4 MY16 HSE Luxury - Now Sold D4 MY12 HSE - Gone D3 MY06 S - Gone but not forgotten |
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28th Aug 2020 9:54pm |
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| Zed Member Since: 07 Oct 2017 Location: In the woods Posts: 3032 
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April to June the UK suffered the deepest recession on record and easily the worst of any major economy. Any increase in sales should be welcomed but we won't know for a while whether it's a recovery or just a build up of sales from the lockdown. I feel for all the folks losing their jobs right now. A mate working in recruitment told me it was like the 80's all over again. WARNING.
This post may contain sarcasm. |
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28th Aug 2020 10:12pm |
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| Procta Member Since: 04 Dec 2016 Location: Sunderland Posts: 4947
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where i work, there is talk about 3 shift patterns returning, so things must be on the up. Defender TD5 90 ---/--- Peugeot 306 HDI hatch back
Success is 90% Inspiration and 4 minutes Preparation # you can make it! |
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28th Aug 2020 11:51pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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I'm not doubting that that is true, but wondering where all these cars are going - the trade magazines are reporting firm prices for used stock due to short supply. |
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29th Aug 2020 9:02am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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But unlike most, if not all previous recessions, there were no underlying structural causes. This one has been unique, it may cause a few issues as it tries to spin back up to normal speed but there are no real impediments to it doing so. I read an economists report (I'll try and dig a reference out) saying that it was not a recession but rather mimicked a recession because the economic tests set up to measure a recession could not differentiate between people not having money to spend and people not being able to spend by lockdown (I paraphrase). Hardly surprising for such a unique circumstance.
If it's the latter surely it's still a recovery especially if sales have not been lost but just deferred; either that or you ignore the drop and say demand was delayed? |
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29th Aug 2020 9:20am |
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